Current prices
- Thread starter sombra
- Start date
All bubbles burst. Full auto is no different but they are artificially inflated due to law. Law changes prices crash. Law doesnt even have to change for prices to crash. Secretary of Treasury can open registrations. Name one bubble in history that hasn't burst. Bubble defined as fast run up in prices over a short period of time that far exceeds inflation rate. Going back to Tulips in the 17th century all bubbles have burst. More recently see civil war firearms, dot Com, housing, baseball cards, beanie babies, silver, etc.
I haven’t seen a “bubble” in collectible 98k’s. Sure, those crappy Finn guns, Russian guns and other import milsurps are artificially inflated and doomed to crash, but collectible 98k rifles haven’t had some huge jump or peak. Prices always fall in the summer, every year as long as I’ve been around. People aren’t shopping for stuff in the summer, they are outside doing things. In the winter prices tick up. Over time the prices rise in collectible non import marked stuff. People crow about these huge older collections, but I’m here to tell you 50% of the guns in the majority of those are bad, out of the rest 10% are truly higher condition collectible guns.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Rare and top condition tend to avoid crashes or if they do it is short lived. Even during housing crash waterfront properties or property in Aspen weren't affected nearly as much, and have more than recovered, most places are still below the 2006 peak. RC K98K I would put in the bubble category being they have seen nearly a 100% price increase.
I absolutely believe a lot in collections are no good and if 90% are then I would expect the 10% to better hold their value. At the same time if Milsurp bubble bursts, like I believe it is now, because it was before summer this year that sales dropped off, the 90% will crash in price too.
If there is a bubble in history that hasn't burst I don't know what it is.
Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk
Great and very informative thread. Just hope the more minty examples hold their value or increase as they should. Seems interest in Third Reich items seems more solid than militaria from other countries or conflicts. I can attest to the "bubble burst" in Nascar diecast my son and I sunk money into many years back. Be lucky to get 1/3 of what we paid. Still look nice on display at least.
Yup. I saw a large estate collection in RI yesterday. Dozens of k98's. About 6 weren't messed with. A lot of sanded or replaced stocks and plenty of cold blue.
+1 on this.
We collect because we love history. This is a collector forum, not a dealer/investor forum. Collecting WWII rifles is not like investing in the stock market and therefore shouldn't be evaluated in the same fashion.
No they should not be invested in. Investments should be liquid such as securities and metals or revenue generating like real estate. Collectibles of any kind are neither and are subject to large price swings.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Speaking of messed with Rifles in large collections; I have never seen so many in one auction let alone an auction of a single collection. The Bolivian brought a tear to my eye.
https://holabirdamericana.liveaucti...irearm-and-Artifact-Auction_as59823_p2?ps=100
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
https://holabirdamericana.liveaucti...irearm-and-Artifact-Auction_as59823_p2?ps=100
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
racerlee
Well-known member
Holly crap!
There might be a couple gems in there, but the market is going to be flooded with milsurp sporting rifles. Look out GB!
GunKraut
Senior Member
Heckler & Koch G43 and K43. The auctioneer certainly knows his shite.
https://holabirdamericana.liveauctiongroup.com/Heckler-Koch-G43-Rifle-1950-s-JMD-10140_i33855180
https://holabirdamericana.liveauctiongroup.com/Heckler-Koch-K43-Rifle-1943-JMD-10141_i33855181
As the other poster hinted, many "improved" rifles in the lot. The stocks are just toast.
I noticed those too. Thought for a second there was some sort of reissue like the Erma Lugers. Descriptions and pics are terrible. The Bolivian was most bothersome to me, but a crest collector would probably still overpay, if there was actually a picture of the crest. Original stock should have a cool condor Cartouche, not exactly a rifle you can find a stock for to desporterize.
Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk
pzjgr
EOD - bombs and bullets
Do tell, please post some pics....
Yeah I would like to see that myself. Ive had some luck but all day for matching K98k no. RC or mixmaster yes.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
That auction was pretty interesting to watch. I spent a few hours tuned in on Saturday. JM Davis obviously never saw a gun for sale he wouldn't buy. A lot of them sold for prices that I would describe as less ridiculous than usually seen at auctions, if not exactly cheap. The buyers premium was 25% which is pretty steep. There were two 03 Springfields I was interested in and I actually ended up winning one of them. Total blindfaith crapshoot based on one photo that will either be a serious bargain or I will wind up kicking myself in the head.
In general, I believe (just my opinion) this about collectibles: 1) Most collectors get serious into their hobby when they have money, which is normally later in life (or before they get married and have kids, etc.) 2) When people get a little money later in life, they tend to want things that connect them to the past ("I always wanted a _______ because that was the thing to have when I was a kid") 2) Most collectibles have either more or less interest with different generations...for example, most Roy Rogers collectors were kids in the 40's and 50's. 3) As one generation of collectors age-out, retire, or die, their collections may have more or less value depending on the desires of the younger generation. (Roy Rogers collectibles, for example, may not increase in value as the older collectors begin to sell--more supply, less demand from younger generations) and 4) The not so good stuff will lose value when future generations of collectors show less interest in the items; however, the good stuff will always be valuable--there should always be enough demand for the very best stuff.
Based on my opinions and general beliefs, I would say this about K98's: The desireable collector rifles of today (matched, unsanded, no issues) will do better than inflation over the long haul. The decent ones (bolt MM) will probably keep up with inflation. The mismatched, reblued, Mitchells, etc. will not keep up with inflation if and when future generations begin to lose interest (at least as compared to the last 20 years) in WW2 guns, which is bound to happen at some point. This is simple supply and demand. Someday there will a generation that has no connection to WW2 (no living vets), and less interest in it.
I have two sons, age 18 and 21. They both like guns, but they and their friends seem to prefer AR types and shotguns with cammo finish on them. When they are 70, they and their friends will probably be looking for "vintage" AR's and duck guns that are so common today. They will not want vintage Winchester Model 12's--but there are a good number of 70-year olds around today that want Model 12's because that was the thing to have in their youth.
Another bad thing about the future of K98's and German stuff--too many fakes and issues. I have chosen to pretty much totally avoid helmets, patches, armbands, etc. I don't want to get burned--there are a lot of fakes, some very good I understand. I think this could apply to keeping potential new collectors away from rifles. I only pay good money for German rifles and pistols, because there is too much to know and too many traps for me to know about everything German. I will take some of these other things as "throw-ins" with purchases or certainly as gifts; if I buy non-guns, it would have to be very cheap.
Based on my opinions and general beliefs, I would say this about K98's: The desireable collector rifles of today (matched, unsanded, no issues) will do better than inflation over the long haul. The decent ones (bolt MM) will probably keep up with inflation. The mismatched, reblued, Mitchells, etc. will not keep up with inflation if and when future generations begin to lose interest (at least as compared to the last 20 years) in WW2 guns, which is bound to happen at some point. This is simple supply and demand. Someday there will a generation that has no connection to WW2 (no living vets), and less interest in it.
I have two sons, age 18 and 21. They both like guns, but they and their friends seem to prefer AR types and shotguns with cammo finish on them. When they are 70, they and their friends will probably be looking for "vintage" AR's and duck guns that are so common today. They will not want vintage Winchester Model 12's--but there are a good number of 70-year olds around today that want Model 12's because that was the thing to have in their youth.
Another bad thing about the future of K98's and German stuff--too many fakes and issues. I have chosen to pretty much totally avoid helmets, patches, armbands, etc. I don't want to get burned--there are a lot of fakes, some very good I understand. I think this could apply to keeping potential new collectors away from rifles. I only pay good money for German rifles and pistols, because there is too much to know and too many traps for me to know about everything German. I will take some of these other things as "throw-ins" with purchases or certainly as gifts; if I buy non-guns, it would have to be very cheap.
Warrior1354
ax - hole
I bought one rifle out of that auction and I'm quite happy about it well until I get it in hand. From what it looked like it was an all matching Erfurt kar88 carbine but it was advertised as Italian Carcano. I paid $425 for it and what the premiums and shipping it added about another $100. But I still got a pretty elusive carbine for $525.
And then what's crazy I got a buddy that sends me a text at work today and says I need to buy something out of Oregon. Well I couldn't resist so I clicked on the link he sent me turns out it's another all matching Erfurt kar88 carbine with just a little bit of stock issues on the front of the stock. I bought that carbine too because the buy now price was $299 out of a pawn shop!
So in less than one week I bought two of these elusive carbines which at the shows I've been seeing them sell for $1,200 and up. So what I paid for two of them didn't even add what somebody would pay for just one of them.
And then what's crazy I got a buddy that sends me a text at work today and says I need to buy something out of Oregon. Well I couldn't resist so I clicked on the link he sent me turns out it's another all matching Erfurt kar88 carbine with just a little bit of stock issues on the front of the stock. I bought that carbine too because the buy now price was $299 out of a pawn shop!
So in less than one week I bought two of these elusive carbines which at the shows I've been seeing them sell for $1,200 and up. So what I paid for two of them didn't even add what somebody would pay for just one of them.
