Third Party Press

Price Setting is tricky....

Bob in OHIO

Bob in OHIO

Senior Member
Been lots of conversation re: high priced K98s on GB or dealer sites. I present a hypothetical case.... Jack recently showed his beautiful svw 45 K98. If he wanted to sell....what price should he ask? Here's the rifle... http://www.k98kforum.com/showthread.php?38764-SVW-45-b-block-phosphate

Let's consider the demand to buy this rifle.... at various price points...

Price ........ Folks willing to buy.....

  • $1500 ....... 100 buyers
  • $2000 ....... 100 buyers
  • $2500 ....... 50 buyers
  • $3000 ....... 10 buyers
  • $3500 ....... 2 buyers
  • $3800 ....... 1 buyer
  • $4100 ....... 1 buyer (after 3 months)
  • $4500 ....... 1 buyer (after 6 months)

If placed on GB... what BIN should he ask?
 
I'm not a seller (sold 1 firearm in my entire life and still regret it) however depending on when I acquired it and what I paid assuming that distribution is somewhat correct probably $3000. Maybe a little more? If I really didn't want to sell it probably $4k.

That said based on observations of the last several weeks there are probably at least 3 or 4 flippers who's slap a $5995 or $6500 sticker on it and see what happens. Phillynick's new buddy comes to mind.
 
I've got K98ks that I just wouldn't sell, unless the money was ridiculous. That doesn't set a market price, just my price.

BiO, where did you get those numbers for the people willing to buy at each price point?
 
Hambone said:
I've got K98ks that I just wouldn't sell, unless the money was ridiculous. That doesn't set a market price, just my price.

BiO, where did you get those numbers for the people willing to buy at each price point?
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... as stated, hypothetical/ best guess
 
Pretty cool idea

This is an interesting idea. As we know so many factors are in play. If we get enough responses I will reveal what I payed... and what I have been offered for it in the short time it has been posted.:thumbsup:
 
Bob in OHIO said:
Been lots of conversation re: high priced K98s on GB or dealer sites. I present a hypothetical case.... Jack recently showed his beautiful svw 45 K98. If he wanted to sell....what price should he ask? Here's the rifle... http://www.k98kforum.com/showthread.php?38764-SVW-45-b-block-phosphate

Let's consider the demand to buy this rifle.... at various price points...

Price ........ Folks willing to buy.....

  • $1500 ....... 100 buyers
  • $2000 ....... 100 buyers
  • $2500 ....... 50 buyers
  • $3000 ....... 10 buyers
  • $3500 ....... 2 buyers
  • $3800 ....... 1 buyer
  • $4100 ....... 1 buyer (after 3 months)
  • $4500 ....... 1 buyer (after 6 months)

If placed on GB... what BIN should he ask?
Click to expand...

Interesting analysis, Jack's rifle you referenced is a bit of an anomaly as it grades very high, rare date/code, and would be very desirable for most collectors if they didn't already have an example, so that drives the price higher but in general those numbers look pretty consistent to my experience selling over the past few years. I don't sell much, only to feed new purchases, but in Lugers and K98's there are significantly more buyers at $1500-$2k price point, anything over that the pool gets small real quick, true collectors are willing to spend the higher $$'s trying to add a piece but there are only so many of them shopping at any given time. The outliers of $4500+ seem like just that, outliers hoping to get lucky on a big sale (from the seller perspective) or folks with more money where details like market price and collector "value" don't apply.

Good topic,

nick
 
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jack944 said:
This is an interesting idea. As we know so many factors are in play. If we get enough responses I will reveal what I payed... and what I have been offered for it in the short time it has been posted.:thumbsup:
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That would be interesting! I have some preliminary numbers floating around in my head. Teaser maybe? Have you had offers from either lurkers or low post count guys?
 
Before I buy/sell I think long and hard about the price (unless it’s a no brainer). If that rifle were offered to me, I’d like to pay $2.5 but I would pay $3. If it were mine I would probably ask $2.7. I don’t do the gunbroker shenanigans. It’s not hard finding reasonable buyers on this, and a few other forums.
 
Price is very tricky. The old saying “it’s worth what someone will pay” is the most correct still I feel. You can certainly get a baseline one some guns, where most guys will agree and there are enough that guys don’t fight over them at that price. But once it’s something special, rare, etc logic can be removed from the equation. It only takes one person to really really want it to skew what we expect to see. Also most of us aren’t rich, so somewhere there has to be a real world value....someone who has money may not care what they pay. I mean rich people drop $50k on champagne, what’s a $25k rifle if it’s rare or even what they want at that moment. And we all know this hobby attracts guys with no money to guys with piles of it. So it’s relative. Also does jack need the cash? Or have another item lined which they money is earmarked? A lot of factors.
 
Interesting thread, Bob. I thought it was a poll to establish a table like you posted but with real numbers, and then maybe we could extrapolate to a larger population.

For that purpose I will offer what I would pay, though I am by far an outlier as I have very little interest in 1945 Oberndorf rifles. I would get that rifle if I could find it offered for less than $2k. Given its condition and rarity, I'd be priced out the second someone who enjoys 1945 svw's showed up, but they'd certainly get more enjoyment out of it :biggrin1:
 
heavy_mech said:
I suspected as much. It made me think about another discussion about brand new guys showing up looking for top-shelf rifles. At least one turned out to be a shithead.
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Yes, but several more have turned out to be good solid guys who have had very good transactions with me and others here. I'll take that ratio all day. In a properly functioning environment, shiteheads only get to be that way once.
 
Yes

Hambone said:
Yes, but several more have turned out to be good solid guys who have had very good transactions with me and others here. I'll take that ratio all day. In a properly functioning environment, shiteheads only get to be that way once.
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I have certainly been encouraged by the "Youngins" who contacted me about this and other rifles I have. The good news is that they can trust us "Seniors" due to the honesty and frankness of this forum. They respect us and for that they are willing to pay more. Given the prices...putting a big collection together is not easy anymore unless you have some good change available. So if you can't own 20 of them...they want 1 or 2 killers.
 
Got it Ham. I think you're spot on. It's very healthy to have new people develop an interest in the hobby. It great how much members welcome and are willing to help. My radar was probably set a bit too sensitive after what that clown pulled. And you all do a great job of policing things here!
 
jack944 said:
The good news is that they can trust us "Seniors" due to the honesty and frankness of this forum. They respect us and for that they are willing to pay more.
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Actually that IS really good news. I'm glad to hear that!

jack944 said:
if you can't own 20 of them...they want 1 or 2 killers.
Click to expand...

Looking at it from that perspective it makes perfect sense. :thumbsup:
 
heavy_mech said:
Got it Ham. I think you're spot on. It's very healthy to have new people develop an interest in the hobby. It great how much members welcome and are willing to help. My radar was probably set a bit too sensitive after what that clown pulled. And you all do a great job of policing things here!
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Thanks HM, but really, our policing style is to do little to nothing ;) We are fortunate that there are 20-30 somethings interested and involved. I will sell and trade to them and us for less than I'd get on Gunbonker. If you have a healthy hobby it will maintain and grow. New guys, old and young, should not be viewed as profit centers for hobby big wig shilled up crap and humpjobs, but as its future. I've watched what has happened in German helmet collecting over the years and it has helped as a "what not to do" for forum management. I do recommend GWH2 however.

I think Dave and other guys are hitting on an issue here: pricing new guys out of the market. But again, I think there has definitely has been increases in desirability and prices over time. However, some of this is, again, the manipulation and chicanery of dealers and sellers. It's not real, it's not "the market."
 
jack944 said:
This is an interesting idea. As we know so many factors are in play. If we get enough responses I will reveal what I payed... and what I have been offered for it in the short time it has been posted.:thumbsup:
Click to expand...

I had been looking for one for a while. A nice one just sold at Rock Island that I was going to bid on. I bid up to $2k but it went for $2.5k and then the 21% fee, taxes and shipping was too much for me
 
Caesar1 said:
I had been looking for one for a while. A nice one just sold at Rock Island that I was going to bid on. I bid up to $2k but it went for $2.5k and then the 21% fee, taxes and shipping was too much for me
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Yes, but remember, auctions like that add all the fees and such when they publish "realized price" listings. It really sold at auction for $2,500, but the "realized price" will be over $3,000.00. Condition is super important too. If that auction rifle has a wanked stock, some guys, like me, will pay much more for a completely unwanked rifle.
 
jack944 said:
This is an interesting idea. As we know so many factors are in play. If we get enough responses I will reveal what I payed... and what I have been offered for it in the short time it has been posted.:thumbsup:
Click to expand...

Jack... my pricing "exercise" was not meant to be complicated by the rifle chosen. Plenty of excellent examples to consider that may make the relationship between demand and price reasonable/ realistic. For this exercise, forget about the specific svw for a moment and concentrate on the function between price and folks willing to buy. Like real-estate, if there are 5 or 10 buyers willing to snag at the "asking" price, it was priced too low. If the house sits on the market for 12 months.... you can bet it's too high for that specific market, right? I have gone to open-houses that were scheduled and cash offers at full-ask were already on the table when I got there...

Also, no real reason to reveal buy price and offered price. I think the buy price can be misleading when a bargain rifle is found. Not saying the svw was a bargain, but when guys mention they have found a matched blah blah blah for a bargain, that does not reflect what other interested parties can routinely expect...
 
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